For the 2017 Balaton Group meeting, I’ve updated Sterman & Wittenberg’s Path Dependence, Competition, and Succession in the Dynamics of Scientific Revolution model. The new version is far more usable, with readable variable names and improved diagrams.
This is an extremely interesting model for our current situation of clashing paradigms, fake news and filter bubbles. I encourage you to take a look at the model and paper.
This is actually much more natural as a Ventity model, so watch for another update.
In the near future I’ll be running an experiment with serving advertisements on this site, starting with Google AdSense.
This is motivated by a little bit of greed (to defray the costs of hosting) and a lot of curiosity.
- What kind of ads will show up here?
- Will it change my perception of this blog?
- Will I feel any editorial pressure? (If so, the experiment ends.)
I’m generally wary of running society’s information system on a paid basis. (Recall the first deadly sin of complex system management.) On the other hand, there are certainly valid interests in sharing commercial information.
I plan to write about the outcome down the road, but first I’d like to get some firsthand experience.
What do you think?
Update: The experiment is over.
Here’s a nice example of how AI is killing us now. I won’t dignify this with a link, but I found it posted by a LinkedIn user.
I’d call this an example of artificial stupidity, not AI. The article starts off sounding plausible, but quickly degenerates into complete nonsense that’s either automatically generated or translated, with catastrophic results. But it was good enough to make it past someone’s cognitive filters.
For years, corporations have targeted on World Health Organization to indicate ads to and once to indicate the ads. AI permits marketers to, instead, specialize in what messages to indicate the audience, therefore, brands will produce powerful ads specific to the target market. With programmatic accounting for 67% of all international show ads in 2017, AI is required quite ever to make sure the inflated volume of ads doesn’t have an effect on the standard of ads.
One style of AI that’s showing important promise during this space is tongue process (NLP). informatics could be a psychological feature machine learning technology which will realize trends in behavior and traffic an equivalent method an individual’s brain will. mistreatment informatics during this method can match ads with people supported context, compared to only keywords within the past, thus considerably increasing click rates and conversions.
I was looking at my google stats the other day, curious what posts interest people most. The answer was surprising. Guess what’s #1?
It’s not “Are Causal Loop Diagrams Useful?” (That’s #2.)
It’s not what I’d consider my best technical work, like Bathtub Statistics or Fun with 1D Vector Fields.
It’s not about something controversial, like On Limits to Growth or The alien hail Mary, and other climate policy plays.
Nor is it a hot topic, like Data science meets the bottom line.
It’s not something practical, like Writing an SD Conference Paper.
#1 is the Fibonacci sequence, How Many Pairs of Rabbits Are Created by One Pair in One Year?
A nice TED talk explaining how algorithms can reinforce unfairness, inequity and errors of judgment:
Note the discussion of teacher value added modeling. This corresponds with what I found in my own assessment here.
The NY Times has a terrific obituary of economist Kenneth Arrow, who died yesterday at age 95. It’s a great read, from the discussion of the Impossibility Theorem and General Equilibrium to the personal anecdote at the end.
My posting rate unintentionally fell off a cliff a couple years back. I got busy working on Ventity, and one thing led to another …
Anyhow, I’ve migrated the site to a new host, and merged my Model Library into the content. I’m working on some substantive posts – it’s a good opportunity to reflect on new developments.
Stay tuned …
“Normally, conservatives extol the magic of markets and the adaptability of the private sector, which is supposedly able to transcend with ease any constraints posed by, say, limited supplies of natural resources. But as soon as anyone proposes adding a few limits to reflect environmental issues — such as a cap on carbon emissions — those all-capable corporations supposedly lose any ability to cope with change.” Krugman – NYT
From Clive Hamilton via Technology Review,
If humans were sufficiently omniscient and omnipotent, would we, like God, use climate engineering methods benevolently? Earth system science cannot answer this question, but it hardly needs to, for we know the answer already. Given that humans are proposing to engineer the climate because of a cascade of institutional failings and self-interested behaviours, any suggestions that deployment of a solar shield would be done in a way that fulfilled the strongest principles of justice and compassion would lack credibility, to say the least.
Geoengineering seems sure to make a mess, even if the tech works.