https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/mqp-all/6010/

The system dynamics of automobile fuel economy

Catherine Anne Raposa, Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Todd K. BenDor, Worcester Polytechnic Institute

Faculty Advisor

Lyneis, James M.

Abstract

This project analyzes the dynamics of US automobile gasoline consumption since 1970. Through the creation of a System Dynamics computer model, we are able to understand historical trends and test several currently proposed policies. We conclude that when fuel efficiency development is not conducted in an environment with rising fuel costs, the development is directly counteracted by the shifting tastes of consumers towards larger automobiles with lower fuel efficiency.

h/t Christine Tang

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As you wrote the assumption of steady state can be problematic here. Dick later published an article that looks into the problem, but still in a steady state situation (general form: if you see people waiting in a queue and ask them how long they have been waiting, and get the distribution of their elapse time, can you estimate the distribution of total time in the queue). The results are very interesting, but still is not what you are looking for in systems that are necessarily in steady state. Back then we thought that with some work this can be expanded to non-steady state conditions. Remember that the inflow is more sensitive to stochastic changes than the whole stock.

Cross-sectional surveys: Inferring total eventual time in current state using only elapsed time-to-date https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0038012115300501

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