Joeri Rogelj and others argue that Copenhagen Accord pledges are paltry in a Nature Opinion,
Current national emissions targets can’t limit global warming to 2 °C, calculate Joeri Rogelj, Malte Meinshausen and colleagues — they might even lock the world into exceeding 3 °C warming.
- Nations will probably meet only the lower ends of their emissions pledges in the absence of a binding international agreement
- Nations can bank an estimated 12 gigatonnes of Co2 equivalents surplus allowances for use after 2012
- Land-use rules are likely to result in further allowance increases of 0.5 GtCO2-eq per year
- Global emissions in 2020 could thus be up to 20% higher than today
- Current pledges mean a greater than 50% chance that warming will exceed 3°C by 2100
- If nations agree to halve emissions by 2050, there is still a 50% chance that warming will exceed 2°C and will almost certainly exceed 1.5°C
Via Nature’s Climate Feedback, Copenhagen Accord – missing the mark.
Actually this is but the latest science article saying that we are most like to break the 2’C theoretically safe warming barrier.
Earlier this year UNEP did a short internal note called “How Close are we to the Two Degree Limit?”
And last year I did an appraisal that came to the same conclusion. The on-line version of which is here
http://www.science-com.concatenation.org/archive/can_we_beat_the_climate_crunch.html
Thanks for the link … I missed yours when I did an inventory of tracking efforts last year.