On Saturday I gave a quick introduction to modeling the coronavirus epidemic in a Crusonia livestream, followed by Q&A. We had some really smart people on the call, with lots of interesting ideas to follow up on. I talk a bit about economic tradeoffs, using a speculative extension of my earlier model. One thing that was clearer to me after the discussion than before is just how hamstrung we’ve been by the lack of testing. I think it would not be much of stretch to say that this failure is costing us a billion dollars a day, due to inability to isolate the infected and lack of information for decision making.
The second panelist – Eugene Scarberry – was really interesting, both for his extensive experience in the trenches getting things approved at the FDA, and some good background on ventilators and alternatives, and how to get more of them.
Tom,
Excellent presentation! I can tell you that the policy makers are interested in modelling outputs.
Will you be posting a copy of this model in PLE edition to the metaSD site?
The economical factors that you added from the previous (version 8) are interesting.
Thank you.
I can’t do this one in PLE because it uses arrays, but I’ve created a simplified version that will be available. Stay tuned…
Tom
No worries I’m going to upgrade to PLE+ edition because suddenly I’m learning more and more & want to do more but I’m Not ready for the Pro-Version yet.
Thank you.
Tom,
outstanding presentation! Thank you! I am looking forward to playing with model you provide. I can learn a lot thanks to your blog posts.
Regards
Remek
Very informative presentation. It brought back memories of a time I haven’t thought about for a while. When I was a grad student in the late 70s, we had a professor who taught a class he called Integrative Physiology. He was a big fan of Jay Forrester and system dynamics. I remember diagramming interactions between organ systems using what he called Forrester diagrams. One of my favorite grad school courses.
Tom,
Kindly following up. Have you by any chance have you created a simplified version of the model used in your crusonia presentation? I think this model would be useful as countries start relaxing containment measures and potentially focus will be on the economy as well as some experts state the “2nd Wave”.
Thank you.