AI Chatbots on Causality

Having recently encountered some major causality train wrecks, I got curious about LLM “understanding” of causality. If AI chatbots are trained on the web corpus, and the web doesn’t “get” causality, there’s no reason to think that AI will make sense either.

TLDR; ChatGPT and Bing utterly fail this test, for reasons that are evident in Google Bard’s surprisingly smart answer.

ChatGPT: FAIL

Bing: FAIL

Google Bard: PASS

Google gets strong marks for mentioning a bunch of reasons to expect that we might not find a correlation, even though x is known to cause y. I’d probably only give it a B+, because it neglected integration and feedback, but it’s a good answer that properly raises lots of doubts about simplistic views of causality.

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