Fancy Stats and Silly Climate Contests

Climate skeptics seem to have a thing for contests and bets.¬†For example, there’s Armstrong’s proposed bet, baiting Al Gore. Amusingly (for data nerds anyway), the bet, which pitted a null forecast against the taker’s chosen climate model, could have been beaten easily by either a low-order climate model or a less-naive null forecast. And, of … Continue reading “Fancy Stats and Silly Climate Contests”

Burt Rutan's climate causality confusion

I’ve always thought Burt Rutan was pretty cool, so I was rather disappointed when he signed on to a shady climate op-ed in the WSJ (along with Scott Armstrong). I was curious what Rutan’s mental model was, so I googled and found his arguments summarized in an extensive slide deck, available here. It would probably … Continue reading “Burt Rutan's climate causality confusion”

Polar Bears & Principles

Amstrup et al. have just published a rebuttal of the Armstrong, Green & Soon critique of polar bear assessments. Polar bears aren’t my area, and I haven’t read the original, so I won’t comment on the ursine substance. However, Amstrup et al. reinforce many of my earlier objections to (mis)application of forecasting principles, so here … Continue reading “Polar Bears & Principles”

Unprincipled Forecast Evaluation

I hadn’t noticed until I heard it here, but Armstrong & Green are back at it, with various claims that climate forecasts are worthless. In the Financial Post, they criticize the MIT Joint Program model, … No more than 30% of forecasting principles were properly applied by the MIT modellers and 49 principles were violated. … Continue reading “Unprincipled Forecast Evaluation”

Take the bet, Al

I’ve asserted here that the Global Warming Challenge is a sucker bet. I still think that’s true, but I may be wrong about the identity of the sucker. Here are the terms of the bet as of this writing: The general objective of the challenge is to promote the proper use of science in formulating … Continue reading “Take the bet, Al”

More on Climate Predictions

No pun intended. Scott Armstrong has again asserted on the JDM list that global warming forecasts are merely unscientific opinions (ignoring my prior objections to the claim). My response follows (a bit enhanced here, e.g., providing links). Today would be an auspicious day to declare the death of climate science, but I’m afraid the announcement … Continue reading “More on Climate Predictions”

On Limits to Growth

It’s a good idea to read things you criticize; checking your sources doesn’t hurt either. One of the most frequent targets of uninformed criticism, passed down from teacher to student with nary a reference to the actual text, must be The Limits to Growth. In writing my recent review of Green & Armstrong (2007), I … Continue reading “On Limits to Growth”

Evidence on Climate Predictions

Last Year, Kesten Green and Scott Armstrong published a critique of climate science, arguing that there are no valid scientific forecasts of climate. RealClimate mocked the paper, but didn’t really refute it. The paper came to my attention recently when Green & Armstrong attacked John Sterman and Linda Booth Sweeney’s paper on mental models of … Continue reading “Evidence on Climate Predictions”