Market Growth

John Morecroft’s implementation of Jay Forrester’s Market Growth model, replicated by an MIT colleague whose name is lost to the mists of time, from:

Morecroft, J. D. W. (1983). System Dynamics: Portraying Bounded Rationality. Omega, 11(2), 131-142.

This paper examines the linkages between system dynamics and the Carnegie school in their treatment of human decision making. It is argued that the structure of system dynamics models implicitly assumes bounded rationality in decision making and that recognition of this assumption would aid system dynamicists in model construction and in communication to other social science disciplines. The paper begins by examining Simon’s “Principle of Bounded Rationality” which draws attention to the cognitive limitations on the information gathering and processing powers of human decision makers. Forrester’s “Market Growth Model” is used to illustrate the central theme that system dynamics models are portrayals of bounded rationality. Close examination of the model formulation reveals decision functions involving simple rules of thumb and limited information content. …

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