I’m preparing for a talk on the dynamics of dictatorship or authoritarianism, which touches on many other topics, like polarization, conflict, terror and insurgency, and filter bubbles. I thought I’d share a few references, in the hope of attracting more. I’m primarily interested in mathematical models, or at least conceptual models that have clearly-articulated structure->behavior relationships.
From the SDR & SD Conference Proceedings
The sociopolitical destabilization of Venezuela
The dynamics of ethnic terrorism
Rethinking the Conflict Trap (Columbia)
Farmers, Bandits and Soldiers – SDR or Conference
Other model-oriented literature
Several people have mentioned Peter Turchin’s Historical Dynamics
The logic of authoritarian bargains
Authoritarian reversals and democratic consolidation
An informational theory of the new authoritarianism
Power sharing and leadership dynamics
Stay tuned for more on this topic.