I linked some newish work on sea level by Aslak Grinsted et al. in my last post. There are some other new developments:
On the data front, Rohling et al. investigate sea level over the last half a million years and in the Pliocene (3+ million years ago). Here’s the relationship between CO2 and Antarctic temperatures:
Two caveats and one interesting observation here:
- The axes are flipped; if you think causally with CO2 on the x-axis, you need to mentally reflect this picture.
- TAA refers to Antarctic temperature, which is subject to polar amplification
- Notice that the empirical line (red) is much shallower than the relationship in model projections (green). Since the axes are flipped, that means that empirical Antarctic temperatures are much more sensitive to CO2 than projections, if it’s valid to extrapolate, and we wait long enough.