I decided to try out a trickier problem on ChatGPT: epidemiology.
This is tougher, because it requires some domain knowledge about terminology as well as some math. R0 itself is a slippery concept. It appears that ChatGPT is essentially equating R0 and the transmission rate; perhaps the result would be different had I used a different concept like force of infection.
Notice how ChatGPT is partly responding to my prodding, but stubbornly refuses to give up on the idea that the transmission rate needs to be less than R0, even though the two are not comparable.
Well, we got there in the end.
This video explores a simple epidemic model for a community confronting coronavirus.
I built this to reflect my hometown, Bozeman MT and surrounding Gallatin County, with a population of 100,000 and no reported cases – yet. It shows the importance of an early, robust, multi-pronged approach to reducing infections. Because it’s simple, it can easily be adapted for other locations.
You can run the model using Vensim PLE or the Model Reader (or any higher version). Our getting started and running models videos provide a quick introduction to the software.
The model, in .mdl and .vpmx formats for any Vensim version:
community corona 7.zip
Update 3/12: community corona 8-mdl+vpmx.zip
There’s another copy at https://vensim.com/coronavirus/ along with links to the software.