Modeling Investigations

538 had this cool visualization of the Russia investigation in the context of Watergate, Whitewater, and other historic investigations.

The original is fun to watch, but I found it hard to understand the time dynamics from the animation. For its maturity (660 days and counting), has the Russia investigation yielded more or fewer indictments than Watergate (1492 days total)? Are the indictments petering out, or accelerating?

A simplified version of the problem looks a lot like an infection model (a.k.a. logistic growth or Bass diffusion):

So, the interesting question is whether we can – from partway through the history of the system – estimate the ultimate number of indictments and convictions it will yield. This is fraught with danger, especially when you have no independent information about the “physics” of the system, especially the population of potential crooks to be caught. Continue reading “Modeling Investigations”