I’ve just been looking into replicating the DICE-2007 model in Vensim (as I’ve previously done with DICE and RICE). As usual, it’s in GAMS, which is very powerful for optimization and general equilibrium work. However, it has to be the most horrible language I’ve ever seen for specifying dynamic models – worse than Excel, BASIC, you name it. The only contender for the title of time series horror show I can think of is SQL. I was recently amused when a GAMS user in China, working with a complex, unfinished Vensim model, heavy on arrays and interface detail, 50x the size of DICE, exclaimed, “it’s so easy!” I’d rather go to the dentist than plow through yet another pile of GAMS code to figure out what gsig(T)=gsigma*EXP(-dsig*10*(ORD(T)-1)-dsig2*10*((ord(t)-1)**2));sigma(“1”)=sig0;LOOP(T,sigma(T+1)=(sigma(T)/((1-gsig(T+1))));); means. End rant.

Climate War Game – Is 2050 Temperature Locked In?

This slide became known as “the Angry Red Future” at the war game:
The Angry Red Future

Source: ORNL & Pew via Nature In the Field

After seeing the presentation around it, Eli Kintisch of Science asked me whether it was realistic to assume that 2050 climate is already locked in. (Keep in mind that we were living in 2015.) I guessed yes, then quickly ran a few simulations to verify. Then I lost my train of thought and lost track of Eli. So, for what it’s still worth, here’s the answer.

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