Forest Tipping in the Rockies

Research shows that some forests in the Rockies aren’t recovering from wildfires. Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change Abstract Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi‐regional dataset of 1485 … Continue reading “Forest Tipping in the Rockies”

Forest Cover Tipping Points

There’s an interesting discussion of forest tipping points in a new paper in Science: Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions Marina Hirota, Milena Holmgren, Egbert H. Van Nes, Marten Scheffer It has been suggested that tropical forest and savanna could represent alternative stable states, implying critical transitions at tipping points in … Continue reading “Forest Cover Tipping Points”

Forest Cover Tipping Points

This is a model of forest stability and transitions, inspired by: Global Resilience of Tropical Forest and Savanna to Critical Transitions Marina Hirota, Milena Holmgren, Egbert H. Van Nes, Marten Scheffer It has been suggested that tropical forest and savanna could represent alternative stable states, implying critical transitions at tipping points in response to altered … Continue reading “Forest Cover Tipping Points”

Tipping points

The concept of tipping points is powerful, but sometimes a bit muddled. Things that get described as tipping points often sound to me like mere dramatic events or nonlinear effects, simple thermodynamic irreversibilities, or exponential signals emerging unexpectedly from noise. These may play a role in tipping points, and lead to surprises, but I don’t … Continue reading “Tipping points”

Coupled Catastrophes

I ran across this cool article on network dynamics, and thought the model would be an interesting application for Ventity: Coupled catastrophes: sudden shifts cascade and hop among interdependent systems Charles D. Brummitt, George Barnett and Raissa M. D’Souza Abstract An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples … Continue reading “Coupled Catastrophes”

Biological Dynamics of Stress: the Outer Loops

A while back I reviewed an interesting model of hormone interactions triggered by stress. The bottom line: I think there might be a lot of interesting policy implications lurking in this model, waiting for an intrepid explorer with more subject matter expertise than I have. I think the crucial point here is that the structure … Continue reading “Biological Dynamics of Stress: the Outer Loops”

Where are the dynamic project managers?

Project management has been one of the most productive and successful areas of system dynamics. And yet, when I recently looked at project management tools and advice, I couldn’t find a hint of SD dynamic insights into product management. Lists of reasons for project failure almost entirely neglect endogenous explanations. Nothing about rework, late change orders, … Continue reading “Where are the dynamic project managers?”

The Dynamics of Initiative Success

This is a new replication of a classic model, for the library. The model began in Nelson Repenning’s thesis, and was later published in Organization Science: A Simulation-Based Approach to Understanding the Dynamics of Innovation Implementation The history of management practice is filled with innovations that failed to live up to the promise suggested by … Continue reading “The Dynamics of Initiative Success”

Feedback and project schedule performance

Yasaman Jalili and David Ford look take a deeper look at project model dynamics in the January System Dynamics Review. An excerpt: Quantifying the impacts of rework, schedule pressure, and ripple effect loops on project schedule performance Schedule performance is often critical to construction project success. But many times projects experience large unforeseen delays and … Continue reading “Feedback and project schedule performance”