Don't just do something, stand there! Reflections on the counterintuitive behavior of complex systems, seen through the eyes of System Dynamics, Systems Thinking and simulation.
My take: It’s a noble effort, but flawed. The best thing about it is the broad, upstream coverage of >85% of emissions. However, there are too many extraneous pieces operating alongside the cap. Those create possible inefficiencies, where the price of carbon is nonuniform across the economy, and create a huge design task and administrative … Continue reading “Reactions to Waxman Markey”
In an effort to get a handle on Waxman Markey, I’ve been digging through the EPA’s analysis. Here’s a visualization of covered vs. uncovered emissions in 2016 (click through for the interactive version). The orange bits above are uncovered emissions – mostly the usual suspects: methane from cow burps, landfills, and coal mines; N2O from … Continue reading “Waxman-Markey emissions coverage”
Science’s Eli Kintishch and Gavin Schmidt liveblogged the House hearing on climate science this morning. My favorite tidbits: Gavin Schmidt: One theme that will be constant is that unilateral action by the US is meaningless if everyone else continues with business as usual. However, this is not a ethical argument for not doing anything. Edward … Continue reading “The House Climate Science Hearing”
Mining my hard drive for stuff I did a few weeks back, when the Waxman Markey draft was just out, I ran across this graph: It shows prices for electricity and petroleum from the ADAGE model in the June EPA analysis. BAU = business-as-usual; SCN 02 = updated Waxman-Markey scenario; SCN 06 = W-M without … Continue reading “Allocation Oddity”
I’ve been reading the Breakthrough Institute’s Waxman Markey analysis, which is a bit spotty* but raises many interesting issues. One comment seemed too crazy to be true: that the W-M strategic reserve is “refilled” with forestry offsets. Sure enough, it is true: 726 (g) (2) INTERNATIONAL OFFSET CREDITS FOR REDUCED DEFORESTATION- The Administrator shall use … Continue reading “Strategic Excess?”
I ran across this gem in the text of Waxman Markey (HR 2454): (e) Trade-vulnerable Industries- (1) IN GENERAL- The Administrator shall allocate emission allowances to energy-intensive, trade-exposed entities, to be distributed in accordance with section 765, in the following amounts: (A) For vintage years 2012 and 2013, up to 2.0 percent of the emission … Continue reading “Talking to the taxman about math”
… is Marty Feldstein’s lame arguments against it. He cites CBO household costs of policy that reflect outlays, rather than real deadweight or welfare losses after revenue recycling. He wants the US to wait for global agreement before moving. News flash: there won’t be a global agreement without some US movement. He argues that unilateral … Continue reading “The only thing worse than cap & trade …”
The official discussion draft of the Kerry-Lieberman American Power Act is out. My heart sank when I saw the page count – 987. I won’t be able to review this in any detail soon. Based on a quick look, I see two potentially huge items: the “hard price collar” has a soft ceiling, and transport … Continue reading “The real Kerry-Lieberman APA stands up, with two big surprises”
I think it’s a second-best policy, but perhaps the most we can hope for, and better than nothing. Climate Progress has a first analysis and links to the leaked draft legislation outline and short summary of the Kerry-Lieberman American Power Act. [Update: there’s now a nice summary table.] For me, the bottom line is, what … Continue reading “Kerry-Lieberman "American Power Act" leaked”