Crazy orbital dynamics

An asteroid has been discovered sharing earth’s orbit, with a horseshoe-shaped orbit (from an earthbound reference frame).

asteroid

The arXiv blog has a nice summary:

Near-Earth asteroids are common but SO16 is in a category of its own. First and foremost, it has an exotic horseshoe-shaped orbit (see diagram above) which astronomers believe to be very rare.

Its worth taking a few moments to think about horseshoe orbits. Two points are worth bearing in mind. First, objects further from the Sun than Earth, orbit more slowly. Second, objects that are closer to the Sun orbit more quickly than Earth.

So imagine an asteroid with an orbit around the Sun that is just a little bit smaller than Earth’s. Because it is orbiting more quickly, this asteroid will gradually catch up with Earth.

When it approaches Earth, the larger planet’s gravity will tend to pull the asteroid towards it and away from the Sun. This makes the asteroid orbit more slowly and if the asteroid ends up in a orbit that is slightly bigger than Earth’s, it will orbit the Sun more slowly than Earth and fall behind.

After that, the Earth will catch up with the slower asteroid in the bigger orbit, pulling it back into the small faster orbit and process begins again.

So from the point of view of the Earth, the asteroid has a horseshoe-shaped orbit, constantly moving towards and away from the Earth without ever passing it. (However, from the asteroid’s point of view, it orbits the Sun continuously in the same direction, sometimes more quickly in smaller orbits and sometimes more slowly in bigger orbits.)

For SO16, the period of this effect is about 350 years.

Even simple systems like the three-body problem can yield analytically intractable and surprising solutions, but this is the weirdest I’ve yet seen (and the competition is stiff this week). It even inspires poetry in the comments.

Production functions – so pretty, so unphysical

I’m rediscovering my old frustrations with aggregate production functions like the CES. They’re handy, but I have a nagging suspicion, never quite formalized, that they just don’t capture the engineering/thermodynamic realities of substitution. Anyone know any papers on that? I’m aware of critiques of KLEM applications, but not interfuel aggregation.

prodFimages

Click to enlarge. From a google images search for production function.

Vensim->Forio Simulate webinar tomorrow

Tomorrow I’ll be co-hosting a free webinar on development of web simulations using Vensim and Forio. Here’s the invite:

VENSIM/FORIO WEBINAR: How to create web simulations with Vensim using Forio Simulate

Vensim is ideally suited for creating sophisticated system dynamics simulation models, and Ventana UK’s Sable tool provides desktop deployment, but how can modelers make the insights from models accessible via the web?

Forio Simulate is a web hosting application that makes it easy for modelers to integrate Vensim models into end-user web applications. It allows modelers working in Vensim to publish VMF files to a server-based installation of Vensim hosted by Forio. Modelers can then use the interface design tool to create a web interface using a drag-and-drop application. No programming is necessary.

Date:
Wednesday, March 23rd @ 1 PM Eastern / 10 AM Pacific

Presenters:
Tom Fiddaman from Ventana Systems, Inc.
Billy Schoenberg from Forio Online Simulations

Cost:
Free

In this free webinar, Tom Fiddaman and Billy Schoenberg will show how Vensim modelers can combine interactive web applications with Vensim.

The webinar will cover:

1. Importing your Vensim model into Forio Simulate for use on the web.
2. Exploring your model with the Forio Simulate Model Explorer
3. Creating a web based user interface without writing code
4. Expanding past the drag and drop UI designer using Forio Simulate’s RESTful APIs

This webinar is suitable for all system dynamics modelers who would like to integrate their simulation into a web application.

There is no charge to attend the webinar. Reserve your spot now at https://www2.gotomeeting.com/register/474057034

Monday tidbits- tools, courses

I neglected to cross-post an interesting new Vensim model documentation tool that’s in my model library.

Shameless commerce dept.: I’m teaching Vensim courses in Palo Alto in April and Bozeman in June. Following the June offering, Ventana’s Bill Arthur will be teaching “SMLOD” – Small Models with Lots of Data – a deep technical dive into the extraction of insight from large datasets.

Knowing Sooner

SEED magazine recently published an article on models for managing complex systems. In it, I talk about the C-ROADS experience. It nicely captures the punchline:

having the capacity to accurately predict the utility of proposed policy—whether it be domestic legislature or multilateral agreements—in real time while discussions are ongoing, opens the door for an entirely new way to enact policy.

I get too much credit for C-ROADS in the article; here are some of the people who really made it happen:

CI teamThe ClimateInteractive team: Travis Franck, Drew Jones, Stephanie McCauley, Phil Sawin, Beth Sawin, and Lori Siegel. Many other partners have also been instrumental, including John Sterman (MIT), Peter Senge (SOL), and really too many others to mention.

The secret to successful system dynamics modeling

Whenever a student wandered in late to a lecture at MIT, Jim Hines would announce, “… and that’s the secret to system dynamics.” If you were one of those perpetually late students, who’s struggled without the secret ever since, I will now reveal it.

”The key to successful modeling is to keep one’s understanding of the model and what it says about the problem ahead of its size.” – Geoff Coyle, via JJ Lauble at the Vensim forum.

Maintaining understanding is really a matter of balancing model testing and critique against creation of new structure, which requires a little discipline in your modeling process. A few suggestions:

Happy hour for moose

I’m wallowing in models and data – emissions scenarios for C-ROADS and very interesting vehicle fleet data from a modeling project in support of a state climate plan. Hopefully I can share some of the latter at some point, when the dust settles.

A nice break was provided by these two visitors, right on schedule for the annual ravaging of a crabapple tree in our yard.

C71V98~1

C71V9827

That’s a cow and her baby. Mama is really big – bigger than our 1200lb draft-cross horse anyway.